除了價(jià)格之外，一個(gè)關(guān)鍵因素將是歐盟排放交易計(jì)劃對(duì)煤炭需求的影響?，F(xiàn)在即將進(jìn)入第三階段，電力部門將全面拍賣補(bǔ)貼，這將對(duì)能源結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生重大影響。根據(jù)里斯本條約，成員國(guó)仍然可以自由決定其能源結(jié)構(gòu)，但實(shí)際上，這種結(jié)構(gòu)將取決于排放配額的可獲得性。前進(jìn)的道路有兩條：第一，一個(gè)成員國(guó)可以將其發(fā)電燃料結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樘烊粴?；第二，它可以通過(guò)提高發(fā)電效率來(lái)保持燃料結(jié)構(gòu)的平衡。后者將需要持續(xù)投資于新的、高效的發(fā)電能力。如果未來(lái)的道路是對(duì)天然氣的爭(zhēng)奪，那么這將給那些依賴煤炭發(fā)電的成員國(guó)帶來(lái)沉重的負(fù)擔(dān)，因?yàn)樗鼈儗⒉坏貌晦D(zhuǎn)向更昂貴的進(jìn)口天然氣。本年度報(bào)告稍后將更詳細(xì)地探討這一重要議題，對(duì)決策者提出許多問(wèn)題，特別是如何維持有利于投資的政策框架。在2009年擱置之后，2011年對(duì)能源稅指令的擬議修訂，引起了進(jìn)一步的關(guān)注。

A key factor, over and above price, will be the impact on coal demand of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. Now about to enter its third phase with full auctioning of allowances in the electricity sector, it will strongly influence the energy mix. Under the Lisbon Treaty, Member States remain free to determine their energy mix, but in practice, the mix will be determined by the availability of emission allowances. There are two ways forward: firstly, a Member State could shift its fuel mix for electric power generation to natural gas; secondly, it could maintain a balanced fuel mix by improving efficiency in power generation. The latter will require continuous investment in new, highly efficient generation capacity. If the way forward is a dash for gas, then this will place a heavy burden on those Member States who are reliant on coal for power generation because they will be obliged to fuel switch to more expensive imported gas. This important topic, explored in more detail later in this annual report, raises many questions for policymakers, in particular, how to maintain a policy framework which favours investment. The proposed revision in 2011 of the Energy Taxation Directive, after being put on hold in 2009, is of further concern.