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挑戰(zhàn)電力技術假設Challenging power teChnology assumptions

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更新時間：2021-09-09
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碳跟蹤器在能源轉換方面的工作已經(jīng)證明了挑戰(zhàn)傳統(tǒng)能源模型假設的價值。關于哪種技術是最便宜的選擇，能源辯論中出現(xiàn)了一幅令人困惑的畫面，然而，世界顯然正處于這樣一個階段:更多的可再生能源正在建設，新的煤炭和天然氣發(fā)電廠也存在不確定性。除去成本的電力(lco)提供了一種比較的成本技術,盡管人們普遍認識到,每個技術,有大范圍的值,其他重要因素,如每日高峰定價和風能和太陽能的系統(tǒng)值也來玩。很明顯，“哪個是最便宜的?”是:“視情況而定”。這一分析試圖證明，對于那些利用lco進行投資或做出政策決定以挑戰(zhàn)基本假設、并了解情況如何變化的人來說，為什么它是有用的。這項研究強調了對平均LCOE假設進行的一系列小幅增量更改如何對發(fā)電技術的可承受性產(chǎn)生深遠的累積影響。碳跟蹤器在能源轉換方面的工作已經(jīng)證明了挑戰(zhàn)傳統(tǒng)能源模型假設的價值。關于哪種技術是最便宜的選擇，能源辯論中出現(xiàn)了一幅令人困惑的畫面，然而，世界顯然正處于這樣一個階段:更多的可再生能源正在建設，新的煤炭和天然氣發(fā)電廠也存在不確定性。除去成本的電力(lco)提供了一種比較的成本技術,盡管人們普遍認識到,每個技術,有大范圍的值,其他重要因素,如每日高峰定價和風能和太陽能的系統(tǒng)值也來玩。很明顯，“哪個是最便宜的?”是:“視情況而定”。這一分析試圖證明，對于那些利用lco進行投資或做出政策決定以挑戰(zhàn)基本假設、并了解情況如何變化的人來說，為什么它是有用的。這項研究強調了對平均LCOE假設進行的一系列小幅增量更改如何對發(fā)電技術的可承受性產(chǎn)生深遠的累積影響。

Carbon Tracker’s work on the energy transition has already demonstrated the value in challenging traditional energy model assumptions. There is a confusing picture in the energy debate about which technologies are the cheapest option, yet the world is clearly at a point where more renewables are getting built and there is uncertainty about new coal and gas plants. Levelised Costs of Electricity (LCOEs) provide one way of comparing the costs of technologies, although it is widely recognized that there are large ranges of values for each technology, and that other important factors such as daily peak pricing and the system value of wind and solar also come in to play. It is clear that the answer to the question “Which is the cheapest?” is: “It depends”. This analysis is an attempt to demonstrate why it is useful for those using LCOEs to make investment or policy decisions to challenge the underlying assumptions, and understand how the landscape is changing. This research highlights how a series of modest incremental changes to average LCOE assumptions can have a profound cumulative impact on the affordability of power generation technologies.Carbon Tracker’s work on the energy transition has already demonstrated the value in challenging traditional energy model assumptions. There is a confusing picture in the energy debate about which technologies are the cheapest option, yet the world is clearly at a point where more renewables are getting built and there is uncertainty about new coal and gas plants. Levelised Costs of Electricity (LCOEs) provide one way of comparing the costs of technologies, although it is widely recognized that there are large ranges of values for each technology, and that other important factors such as daily peak pricing and the system value of wind and solar also come in to play. It is clear that the answer to the question “Which is the cheapest?” is: “It depends”. This analysis is an attempt to demonstrate why it is useful for those using LCOEs to make investment or policy decisions to challenge the underlying assumptions, and understand how the landscape is changing. This research highlights how a series of modest incremental changes to average LCOE assumptions can have a profound cumulative impact on the affordability of power generation technologies.

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