提供負(fù)擔(dān)得起、可靠和可持續(xù)的電力在提高生活水平和釋放經(jīng)濟(jì)潛力方面發(fā)揮著核心作用。在未來幾年里，很少有地方會比組成東南亞國家聯(lián)盟（東盟）的10個國家1更為真實。該區(qū)域人口超過6.29億，繼續(xù)經(jīng)歷經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長、人口變化和工業(yè)發(fā)展。在未來五到十年內(nèi)，通過2015年建立東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)共同體，實現(xiàn)更大的區(qū)域一體化和結(jié)構(gòu)改革，將使經(jīng)濟(jì)增長每年提高6%以上。事實上，2015年東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模為24萬億美元，居世界第六位，亞洲第三位。到2050年，麥肯錫預(yù)計該地區(qū)將成為第四大經(jīng)濟(jì)體3。根據(jù)國際能源署（IEA）的數(shù)據(jù)，在過去25年中，東盟的能源需求增長了150%以上。隨著人口統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)的不斷變化和該地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模增長兩倍以上，國際能源機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測東盟的能源需求將增長80%，達(dá)到略高于10.7億噸石油當(dāng)量（Mtoe），相當(dāng)于日本目前能源總需求的三倍。這與東盟能源中心官方出版物《第四次東盟能源展望》（AEO4）的調(diào)查結(jié)果一致，該出版物于2015年10月在馬來西亞吉隆坡舉行的第33屆東盟能源部長會議（AMEM）上發(fā)布。這些人口和經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢已導(dǎo)致東盟能源部門出現(xiàn)拐點。這將不可避免地帶來雙重挑戰(zhàn)，既要滿足能源需求，又要努力控制溫室氣體排放和其他潛在的環(huán)境影響。因此，東盟必須確定最可持續(xù)的增長方式。對能源的巨大需求為東盟帶來了挑戰(zhàn)和機(jī)遇，因為該地區(qū)各國政府正在努力實現(xiàn)平衡社會、經(jīng)濟(jì)和環(huán)境需求的能源組合。東盟已經(jīng)證明對這些挑戰(zhàn)作出了反應(yīng)，最近通過交付第四系列東盟能源藍(lán)圖：東盟能源合作行動計劃（APAEC）2016-2025第1階段：2016-2020就證明了這一點。在前一計劃成果的基礎(chǔ)上，亞太經(jīng)合組織2016-2025年的主題是“加強(qiáng)東盟的能源連通性和市場一體化，以實現(xiàn)所有人的能源安全、可獲得性、可承受性和可持續(xù)性”。更新后的藍(lán)圖將繼續(xù)側(cè)重于七個方案領(lǐng)域，其中“煤炭和潔凈煤技術(shù)”（CCT）被確定為關(guān)鍵戰(zhàn)略優(yōu)先事項之一。CCT與可再生電力和能源效率并駕齊驅(qū)，表明了煤炭對東盟當(dāng)前和未來的重要性。在過去的15年中，煤炭推動了該地區(qū)的發(fā)展，其年平均增長率為8.4%。區(qū)域能源路線圖表明，煤炭需求在長期內(nèi)（至少25年）不會下降。國際能源機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測，到2020年，煤炭將取代天然氣成為主要的燃料供應(yīng)電力，并在2040年前承擔(dān)50%的發(fā)電量（從目前的32%）7。有一種區(qū)域性的理解是，不斷增加的煤炭使用將需要一種低排放技術(shù)途徑，平衡安全、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和環(huán)境可持續(xù)性的能源三重困境。為了支持向CCT部署過渡，東盟將需要國際金融、技術(shù)等多種支持來加快部署。這種發(fā)展支持完全符合在《巴黎協(xié)定》和聯(lián)合國可持續(xù)發(fā)展目標(biāo)之前提交的國家確定的捐款。東盟的能源方程式——低排放煤炭在推動可持續(xù)能源未來中的作用，為CCT在APAEC 2016-2025中確定的能源安全和可持續(xù)發(fā)展機(jī)會提供了全面分析。報告的見解為“行動呼吁”提供了框架，詳情見結(jié)論。

The delivery of affordable, reliable and sustainable  electricity plays a central role in improving living standards  and unlocking economic potential. Over the coming  years, few places will this be more true than in the ten  countries1 that make-up the Association of Southeast  Asian Nations (ASEAN).  The region has a population of more than 629 million  people and continues to experience high economic growth,  demographic changes and industrial development. Over  the next five to ten years, greater regional integration and  structural reforms realised through the establishment of the  ASEAN Economic Community in 2015 will bolster growth by  over 6% per annum. Indeed, at US$ 2.4trillion, the ASEAN  economy in 2015 was the sixth largest in the world or the  third largest in Asia2. By 2050, McKinsey projects the region  to rank as the fourth-largest economy3.  Over the past 25 years, according to the International Energy  Agency (IEA), ASEAN energy demand has increased by  over 150%4. As demographics continue to change and the  region’s economy more than triples in size, the IEA forecasts  ASEAN’s energy demand to increase by 80% to just over  1070 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe), comparable  to three times Japan’s current total energy demand. This  echoed the findings from the official ASEAN publication, by  the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), the 4th ASEAN Energy  Outlook (AEO4) which was released during the 33rd ASEAN  Ministers on Energy Meeting (AMEM), October 2015 in Kuala  Lumpur, Malaysia5. These demographic and economic trends  have led the ASEAN energy sector to an inflection point.  This inevitably will create dual challenges of meeting energy  demand while also working to rein in greenhouse gas (GHG)  emissions and other potential environmental impacts. Thus, it  is critical for ASEAN to determine the most sustainable way  to fuel the growth. Voracious demand for energy presents challenges and  opportunities for ASEAN as the region’s governments seek  to deliver an energy mix that balances social, economic and  environmental imperatives. ASEAN has proven responsive to the challenges, as recently  demonstrated through the delivery of the fourth series of  ASEAN energy blueprint: ASEAN plan of Action for Energy  Cooperation (APAEC) 2016-2025 Phase 1: 2016-2020.  Building on the achievements of the previous plan, the  APAEC 2016-2025 is founded on the theme of ‘Enhancing  Energy Connectivity and Market Integration in ASEAN to  Achieve Energy Security, Accessibility, Affordability and  Sustainability for All’6. The updated blueprint will continue  to focus on seven programme areas, with ‘Coal and Clean  Coal Technology’ (CCT) identified as one of the key  strategic priorities.  The equal prominence that CCT receives alongside renewable  electricity and energy efficiency is indicative of the current  and forecast importance of coal for ASEAN. Over the last  decade and half, coal has fuelled the region’s development  as reflected in its 8.4% annual average growth rate. Regional  energy roadmaps indicate that coal demand will not decline in  the long-term (minimum 25 years). The IEA forecasts coal to  overtake gas as the primary fuel supplying electricity by 2020  and to be responsible for 50% of electricity generation by  2040 (from 32% today)7.  There is a regional understanding that rising use of coal  will necessitate a low emission technology pathway which  balances the energy trilemma of security, economic  development and environmental sustainability. In order to  support the transition toward CCT deployment, ASEAN will  require international financial, technological and other kinds  of support to accelerate deployment. Such development  support is fully in-line with Nationally Determined  Contributions (NDCs) submitted in the lead up to the ‘Paris  Agreement’ and the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.  ASEAN’s Energy Equation – the role of low emission  coal in driving a sustainable energy future provides  a comprehensive analysis for the energy security and  sustainable development opportunities that CCT promotes  as identified in APAEC 2016-2025. The report’s insights  provide the framework for the ‘Call to Action’ as detailed in  the conclusion.