Joint Memorandum on Realising the Opportunities and Potential of the Chinese wind market開發(fā)中國(guó)風(fēng)電市場(chǎng)與潛力聯(lián)
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- 更新時(shí)間:2021-09-09
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據(jù)國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)(IEA)統(tǒng)計(jì),中國(guó)的電力需求在 2004至2030年間有望增長(zhǎng)250%,屆時(shí)二氧化碳的排放 量將增加一倍多,2030年達(dá)到10,425Mt。目前中國(guó)的能 源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)依賴于價(jià)格易波動(dòng)的煤、天然氣和石油等化 石能源,受到日益嚴(yán)重的生態(tài)環(huán)境破壞的制約。國(guó)家環(huán) ??偩旨皣?guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局有關(guān)報(bào)告估計(jì),2004年中國(guó)環(huán)境污 染的國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)成本為5118億人民幣(640億美元),占 國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值的3.05%,即當(dāng)年中國(guó)“綠色GDP”占GDP總 量的97%。風(fēng)能是一種清潔的永續(xù)能源,不存在燃料價(jià)格風(fēng)險(xiǎn),在 風(fēng)機(jī)壽命期內(nèi)發(fā)電成本穩(wěn)定,不存在外部能源依賴性, 沒有環(huán)境成本,因此,風(fēng)力發(fā)電在降低中國(guó)電力供應(yīng)風(fēng) 險(xiǎn)和長(zhǎng)期發(fā)電成本,以及減少對(duì)燃料價(jià)格依存度方面能 夠發(fā)揮重要作用。而且,風(fēng)力發(fā)電可以加強(qiáng)中國(guó)的能源 供應(yīng)安全,節(jié)約寶貴的自然資源,培育國(guó)產(chǎn)工業(yè)的發(fā) 展,促進(jìn)農(nóng)村電氣化。清潔的風(fēng)電可以明顯降低與發(fā)電 相關(guān)的環(huán)境成本,減少二氧化碳的排放。這些優(yōu)勢(shì)還將 帶來明顯的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益,特別是諸如北部和西北風(fēng)力資源 豐富的邊遠(yuǎn)地區(qū),可以作為風(fēng)機(jī)制造的理想選址。中國(guó)在太陽(yáng)能熱利用方面已經(jīng)占據(jù)了領(lǐng)先地位,風(fēng)能的 開發(fā)利用可以作為一個(gè)新的增長(zhǎng)領(lǐng)域。促進(jìn)風(fēng)能的開發(fā)利用可以扶持中國(guó)民族設(shè)備制造業(yè)的發(fā)展,并形成中國(guó) 本土的風(fēng)機(jī)供應(yīng)鏈以及全球風(fēng)機(jī)制造及服務(wù)基地。中國(guó) 已經(jīng)具備了雄厚的制造業(yè)基礎(chǔ),因此,發(fā)展全球領(lǐng)先的 風(fēng)力發(fā)電和設(shè)備制造業(yè)對(duì)中國(guó)而言并非難事。全球的風(fēng)力發(fā)電產(chǎn)業(yè)正以驚人的速度增長(zhǎng),在過去10年 平均年增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)到28%,有70多個(gè)國(guó)家的裝機(jī)容量超過 了15,000 MW,全球安裝總量達(dá)到了74,000 MW,意味 著每年在該領(lǐng)域的投資額達(dá)到了180億歐元(或230億美 元)。2006年,全球風(fēng)電資金中9%投向了中國(guó),總額 達(dá)162.7億人民幣,或16.2億歐元。因此我們相信,風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展對(duì)中國(guó)而言具備經(jīng)濟(jì)和 環(huán)保雙重價(jià)值。中國(guó)通過可再生能源法的實(shí)施,已經(jīng)向 著正確的發(fā)展方向做出了很多工作和努力。自2006年 1月1日可再生能源法正式生效以來,中國(guó)新增風(fēng)電裝機(jī) 容量超過了1,300 MW,風(fēng)電市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)迅速。
China’s electricity demand is expected to increase by 250% between 2004 and 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. The CO2 output during this time will more than double, reaching 10,425Mt by 2030. China’s current national energy portfolio is dependent on flfl uctuating coal, gas and oil prices and the increasing cost of the related environmental damage. A report published by the Chinese State Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimated that pollution cost the country 511.8 billion yuan (US$64 billion) in economic losses in 2004, or 3.05% of the total economic output, putting the country’s “green GDP” at 97 percent of the original GDP. Wind power is a clean and inexhaustible power generation solution with zero fuel price risk, a fifi xed cost throughout the lifetime of the turbine, no external energy dependencies and no environmental cost. Wind energy can therefore play an important role in reducing the risk and long-term cost of electricity generation in China and the exposure to fuel price volatility. Moreover, wind energy will enhance the country’s security of energy supply, save valuable natural resources, foster domestic industry development and help rural electrififi cation. By producing clean power, wind energy will also signififi cantly decrease power generation-related environmental costs and CO2 emissions. This could provide signififi cant economic benefifi t, some of it in more remote locations such as North and North-west China where wind resources are best and manufacturing could be located.China already has proved itself a leader in terms of the use of solar energy, and wind energy can become the new area of growth. Promoting wind power in China will foster the development of the local wind equipment industry, eventually leading to a China-based supply chain for the turbine industry, global turbine manufacturers of Chinese origin and China-based global service providers. Given China’s traditionally strong manufacturing base, the country could easily become a global leader in terms of wind power generation and equipment manufacturing.The global wind energy industry has been growing at a breathtaking rate, by an average of 28% per annum in the last 10 years. During the year 2006, over 15,000 MW of wind power capacity have been installed in more than 70 countries, bringing the global total installed capacity up to 74,000 MW. This can be translated into an annual investment volume of over €18 bn or US$23 bn. In 2006, around 9% of this amount was invested in China, representing an economic value of 16.27 bn RMB or €1.62 bn.We therefore believe that growing wind energy in China makes both economic and environmental sense. The Chinese government has already taken considerable steps in the right direction with the Renewables Energy Law, which entered into force on 1 January 2006. Since then, over 1,300 MW of wind power have been installed in China, and the market is growing rapidly.
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